Up until the nominations were announced, I assumed Zero Dark Thirty would dominate the Oscars this year. Ah, no. Kathryn Bigelow wasn’t even nominated for Best Director. Now I’d be surprised if the highly-touted film wins any big awards, leaving the door open for Lincoln. Here are some predictions:
Best Picture: Lincoln. You can bank on it. I’m okay with that. It’s great. But Moonrise Kingdom isn’t even nominated??? Seriously?
Best Director: Steven Spielberg will win his 3rd, now that Bigelow is out of the picture.
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis will also win his 3rd Oscar. Like a lot of great performances, he had it won just 10 minutes into the film.
Best Actress: Naomi Watts for Impossible. Bigelow getting dissed for Director hurts Chastain’s chances.
Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook. Playbook got a ton of noms, but it’s not going to win any others. This is a crazy tough category this year, but Alan Arkin’s inclusion cheapens it. (I loved Argo, but his was a throw away role.) Leonardo DiCaprio was robbed. I think De Niro will take it because, obviously, he’s a legend, and he hasn’t had a good role in decades. The academy loves to reward great actors in the twilight of their careers.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams for The Master. Another tough category. Conventional wisdom has the Oscar going to either Field or Hathaway. But, the supporting categories often have upsets. The Master received a lot of praise, but it’s unlikely to win much. I think the Academy will throw it a bone.
Best Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom. The movie is a masterpiece. The Writer’s Guild is smart enough to recognize it.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln. Kushner will add to his Tony.
Best Animated Feature: Frankenweenie. Tim Burton will finally win one.
Best Foreign Feature: Amour. Given all the other nominations this French film has received, how can it not win in this category?
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi.
Best Cinematography: Skyfall.
Best Costume Design: Les Miserables. No Hobbit? Get serious. As I’ve written in a previous blog, I think this is the biggest joke of any category for the Oscars. Don’t get me wrong. Costumes are vital. The problem? The films that are nominated, and typically win. Make a major movie that takes place in the 19th century and you’re pretty much guaranteed an Oscar nom. Why??? All the costumes were designed and worn 200 years ago. Why can’t a producer just drag costume makers to an ethnography museum, point at a display, and say, “Make that!” What exactly do these designers design? This category should be restricted to fantasy and science fiction films. Period.
Best Documentary: How to Survive a Plague. It’s on too many Best of lists to lose.
Best Original Song: “Skyfall.” Adele’s song is a thing of beauty.
Best Makeup: The Hobbit. Probably the only one the film will win.
Best Production Design: Les Miserables.
Yeah, I know. There are other categories. But who can predict Sound Mixing or Best Documentary Short. Not me. I haven’t even seen all the Best Picture Noms…