My 2013 Oscar Predictions

Up until the nominations were announced, I assumed Zero Dark Thirty would dominate the Oscars this year.  Ah, no.  Kathryn Bigelow wasn’t even nominated for Best Director.  Now I’d be surprised if the highly-touted film wins any big awards, leaving the door open for Lincoln.  Here are some predictions:

Best Picture:  Lincoln.  You can bank on it.  I’m okay with that.  It’s great.  But Moonrise Kingdom isn’t even nominated???  Seriously?

Best Director:  Steven Spielberg will win his 3^rd, now that Bigelow is out of the picture.

Best Actor:  Daniel Day Lewis will also win his 3^rd Oscar.  Like a lot of great performances, he had it won just 10 minutes into the film.

Best Actress:  Naomi Watts for Impossible.  Bigelow getting dissed for Director hurts Chastain’s chances.

Best Supporting Actor:  Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook.  Playbook got a ton of noms, but it’s not going to win any others.  This is a crazy tough category this year, but Alan Arkin’s inclusion cheapens it.  (I loved Argo, but his was a throw away role.)  Leonardo DiCaprio was robbed.  I think De Niro will take it because, obviously, he’s a legend, and he hasn’t had a good role in decades.  The academy loves to reward great actors in the twilight of their careers.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams for The Master.  Another tough category.  Conventional wisdom has the Oscar going to either Field or Hathaway.  But, the supporting categories often have upsets.  The Master received a lot of praise, but it’s unlikely to win much.  I think the Academy will throw it a bone.

Best Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom.  The movie is a masterpiece.  The Writer’s Guild is smart enough to recognize it.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln.  Kushner will add to his Tony.

Best Animated Feature: Frankenweenie.  Tim Burton will finally win one.

Best Foreign Feature: Amour.  Given all the other nominations this French film has received, how can it not win in this category?

Best Visual Effects:  Life of Pi.

Best Cinematography: Skyfall.

Best Costume Design: Les Miserables.  No Hobbit?  Get serious.  As I’ve written in a previous blog, I think this is the biggest joke of any category for the Oscars.  Don’t get me wrong.  Costumes are vital.  The problem?  The films that are nominated, and typically win.  Make a major movie that takes place in the 19^th century and you’re pretty much guaranteed an Oscar nom.  Why???  All the costumes were designed and worn 200 years ago.  Why can’t a producer just drag costume makers to an ethnography museum, point at a display, and say, “Make that!”  What exactly do these designers design?  This category should be restricted to fantasy and science fiction films.  Period.

Best Documentary: How to Survive a Plague.  It’s on too many Best of lists to lose.

Best Original Song: “Skyfall.”  Adele’s song is a thing of beauty.

Best Makeup:  The Hobbit.  Probably the only one the film will win.

Best Production Design: Les Miserables.

Yeah, I know.  There are other categories.  But who can predict Sound Mixing or Best Documentary Short.  Not me.  I haven’t even seen all the Best Picture Noms…